Author: admin

You could say that Saturday brings the first act of the 2025 college football season to a close.

Next week, we’ll get a couple of mammoth helmet games — Oregon at Penn State, Alabama at Georgia — and conference play will be fully underway. We’ll head into October talking a lot about playoff implications and the hierarchy among the sport’s top teams.

First, however, we have to tie up some loose ends. We get another week to figure out which of a large group of hyped-but-struggling quarterbacks — Texas’ Arch Manning, Clemson’s Cade Klubnik, Florida’s DJ Lagway, LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier — will steer out of a current skid. We get a huge Illinois-Indiana game (just an amazing combination of words there). We get a matchup of two of the Big 12’s best and meanest teams to date (Texas Tech at Utah). We get former Sooners quarterback Jackson Arnold and Auburn heading to Norman in a battle of SEC unbeatens. And we get another massive week in the Group of 5, with American Conference unbeatens Memphis and Tulane getting shots at SEC upsets and ambitious teams such as UNLV, North Texas and Boise State facing big road tests.

At the start of the college football season, 11 teams had at least a 2% chance of winning the national title, per the Allstate Playoff Predictor. Three weeks in, there are 13. Nothing has been even slightly decided through three weeks, and the door for chaos could open even further this weekend. Before we get to the second act of 2025, here’s everything you need to follow in a loaded Week 4.

All times Eastern.

Jump to a section:
Scuffling QBs | Indiana-Illinois
Big 12 headliner | SEC eliminators?
G5’s big weekend | Week 4 playlist
Small-school showcase

Which disappointing quarterback can rally?

Despite some chaotic undertones, the season has gone approximately as we thought it might. Among the top nine teams in the preseason SP+ rankings, six are still there, and the three others (Texas, Notre Dame, Michigan) haven’t exactly plummeted. Some teams have disappointed early on, but few seasons are completely lost.

For a quartet of quarterbacks, however, we’re approaching now-or-never territory: Either start looking like you were supposed to look or chalk up 2025 as a spectacular disappointment.

Florida at No. 4 Miami (7:30 p.m., ABC)

If DJ Lagway threw only three interceptions against LSU, the Gators might have scored an upset. That’s a positive, right? He instead threw five in a 20-10 loss, but the Florida defense still gave the Gators a chance. It has allowed only 38 points in three games.

The offense has scored only 26 in two FBS games. Opponents aren’t afraid of the run game, receivers aren’t getting open, and Lagway is developing some pretty extreme tendencies in passing to specific areas of the field (as evidenced by all the green “completion” dots along the right sideline on this chart):

Four of Lagway’s six 2025 interceptions have come on third-and-long, and a fifth came in a last-ditch drive against LSU. He’s trying desperately to make something happen, and it’s bringing out some terrible tendencies.

Miami quarterback Carson Beck has been good, and he has gotten the help Lagway hasn’t, from his offensive line and his receivers. But the Florida defense could make this one interesting if Lagway can take what he’s given by a Miami defense that ranks 83rd in yards allowed per dropback.

Current line: Miami -7.5 | SP+ projection: Miami by 10.6 | FPI projection: Miami by 7.2

Syracuse at Clemson (noon, ESPN)

Like Lagway, Clemson’s Cade Klubnik has performed far worse than expected and has gotten little help from his castmates. Syracuse has a history of overachieving against Clemson, but the Orange have the worst-rated FBS defense remaining on the Tigers’ schedule. If Clemson’s offense, currently 96th in points per drive, doesn’t get going now, when might that happen?

The Orange blitz a good amount, and blitzing has hurt Clemson because of a banged-up offensive line and a less-than-scary run game. Klubnik is getting hit a lot and throwing lots of passes short of the sticks. The timing of the offense is off, and the Tigers can’t afford to suffer another conference loss before they start to figure things out. The return of veteran receiver Antonio Williams, listed as probable for Saturday, can’t hurt.

Current line: Clemson -16.5 | SP+ projection: Clemson by 9.2 | FPI projection: Clemson by 9.6

Southeastern Louisiana at No. 3 LSU (7:45 p.m., SECN)

With all proper respect to Southeastern Louisiana — the Lions are seventh in FCS SP+ with a loss to only Louisiana Tech — I’m guessing that LSU remains unbeaten Saturday. Now’s a good time to start repairing an LSU offense that ranks just 112th in points per drive.

Garrett Nussmeier has the most tenable place on this list; his team is unbeaten, and he’s 37th in Total QBR — not what was expected but far higher than anyone else here. His main issue is that he’s playing it safe. The LSU run game might be even worse than it was last year, the offensive line is committing too many penalties, and Nussmeier is throwing mostly quick passes to keep the train moving. His 65% completion rate is solid, but his average yards per completion has fallen from 12.0 (pretty low) to 10.0 (terribly low).

LSU’s line should hold up against SELA — if it doesn’t, yikes — so it will be interesting to see if Nussmeier starts looking further downfield. Now’s the time to build some better habits.

SP+ projection: LSU by 33.0 | FPI projection: LSU by 34.9

Sam Houston at No. 8 Texas (8 p.m., ESPN+)

Going by projections, Texas has the easiest game on this list. But Arch Manning might also be the most broken QB. After showing potential progress in Week 2, Manning completed just 11 of 25 passes for 114 yards, a touchdown and an interception against UTEP. The Miners mostly rushed only four defenders and forced Manning to work through progressions; he took forever to throw and was frequently inaccurate.

Manning is 124th out of 136 QBs with a 55.3% completion rate, and he’s 133rd in average time to throw (3.28 seconds). Meanwhile, his 14 dropbacks against man coverage have netted 13 total yards. His running backs are hurt, his line isn’t great, his receivers aren’t getting open enough and he’s throwing inaccurate passes. If the Texas offense doesn’t get right against a dreadful Sam Houston defense, it might not happen.

Current line: Texas -39.5 (down from -41.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Texas by 40.0 | FPI projection: Texas by 37.7

---

Shades of 1950 in Bloomington

No. 9 Illinois at No. 19 Indiana (7:30 p.m., NBC)

On Oct. 28, 1950, “Goodnight Irene,” performed by The Weavers, was dominating the airwaves. “All About Eve,” starring Bette Davis and featuring a young Marilyn Monroe, was in theaters. SMU was No. 1 in the country, Bear Bryant’s Kentucky was No. 4 and live college football wasn’t found on national television.

It was a long time ago, is what I’m saying. And it was the last time Illinois and Indiana met as ranked foes. In that game, the No. 12 Fighting Illini rode spectacular line play to a 20-0 win over the No. 19 Hoosiers. History hasn’t been kind to either program since. But that has shifted of late.

Curt Cignetti’s Hoosiers and Bret Bielema’s Illini are a combined 27-5 since the start of 2024, and though neither has played an opponent ranked higher than 65th in SP+, both are in the top 15 in points and points allowed per drive this season. They’re treating iffy opposition like excellent teams are supposed to.

Both teams dominate in the Little Things department — red zone, field position, turnovers — and both boast efficient offenses with dominant receivers: Indiana’s Omar Cooper Jr. has 299 yards and four TDs, while Illinois’ Hank Beatty has caught 19 of 20 passes for 289 yards and a TD. Each defense has allowed a few big plays, but they’re both still giving up 4.6 or fewer yards per play.

We know that blue bloods get the best TV ratings, but these two teams have earned this prime-time slot. The computers and sportsbooks lean toward Indiana — and frankly, it’s odd that Illinois is ranked 10 spots higher in the polls — but it would be a surprise if this one didn’t go down to the wire.

Current line: Indiana -6.5 (up from -4.5) | SP+ projection: Indiana by 3.9 | FPI projection: Indiana by 3.1

---

A Big 12 headliner in Salt Lake City

No. 17 Texas Tech at No. 16 Utah (noon, Fox)

If you take preseason projections out of the equation — a terrible idea if you want predictive accuracy, but an intriguing way to look at performance to date — Texas Tech would be first in SP+ and Utah would be eighth. The Red Raiders have overwhelmed three bad opponents by an average score of 58-12, and the Utes lead the Big 12 in early overachievement, topping SP+ projections by an average of 13.7 points per game. On Saturday, one of these teams will score a huge early Big 12 win.

Tech’s defense gives up quite a few big plays, while Utah’s offense, as is customary, doesn’t make many. The Utes rank first in rushing success rate, but so does Tech’s defense. Defensive tackles A. J. Holmes Jr. and Skyler Gill-Howard have eaten up interior run blockers, but the Utah line is one of the most proven in the country, and quarterback Devon Dampier and RBs NaQuari Rogers and Wayshawn Parker keep Utah on schedule.

Even with huge leads in each game, Texas Tech has passed more than 35 times per game at a fast tempo. The Red Raiders are third in yards per dropback, and Behren Morton is completing 70% of his passes at 16.2 yards per completion. Receiver Coy Eakin‘s early numbers (245 yards at 20.4 per catch) are scary.

As you’d expect, however, Utah’s pass defense looks good, too: eighth in completion rate, ninth in interception rate, 24th in yards per dropback. The Utes have given up a few more third-and-long conversions than expected, and if that remains an issue, Tech might never give up the ball. Regardless, there are strength-versus-strength matchups everywhere. This game will be awfully fun.

Current line: Utah -3.5 | SP+ projection: Utah by 1.9 | FPI projection: Utah by 3.8

---

SEC elimination(ish) day

As with Indiana-Illinois in the Big Ten, the SEC has a couple of huge games among teams that aren’t necessarily conference title contenders — though, we don’t know for sure yet — but are jockeying for 10-2 records and potential CFP bids.

No. 22 Auburn at No. 11 Oklahoma (3:30 p.m., ABC)

Oklahoma’s ridiculously back-loaded schedule — six of its final seven opponents rank 17th or higher in SP+ — meant that the Sooners would need a fast start. So far, so good. They’re 3-0 with a win over Michigan despite an offense that remains a work in progress. Quarterback John Mateer might be the current Heisman betting favorite, but the run game averages just 4.3 yards per carry (not including sacks), and the Sooners have fumbled five times with lots of passes broken up. Their five turnovers (104th nationally) haven’t come from bad luck.

Still, Mateer is creating big plays with his arm, and four Sooner pass catchers are on pace for 50-plus receptions. Plus, the OU defense doesn’t need a ton of help — the Sooners rank fourth in points allowed per drive and third in yards allowed per play.

They’re also sixth in rushing success rate allowed, and that might be the most important number against Auburn. The Tigers are running the ball a ton, with the combo of running back Jeremiah Cobb and quarterback Jackson Arnold carrying a heavy load. They’re avoiding must-pass situations — which doomed Arnold as OU’s QB in 2024 — but they’ll likely face some Saturday afternoon, and we’ll learn if Arnold has improved a little or a lot from last year’s disastrous campaign.

Current line: OU -6.5 | SP+ projection: OU by 7.4 | FPI projection: OU by 3.8

South Carolina at No. 23 Missouri (7 p.m., ESPN)

Missouri is one of just 16 teams to overachieve against SP+ projections in all three games, and the Tigers are up to 11th in SP+ because of it. The offense looks great because of a trio of transfers: quarterback Beau Pribula (on pace for 3,100 passing yards), running back Ahmad Hardy (1,800 rushing yards), and receiver Kevin Coleman Jr. (1,000 receiving yards).

South Carolina has the first top-50 defense (per SP+) the Tigers have faced, though the Gamecocks got worked over by Vanderbilt’s efficient attack last week in a jarring 31-7 loss. They don’t give up many big plays, but they rank 73rd in success rate. Mizzou’s offense ranks 12th.

The South Carolina offense saw plenty of offseason hype, but it has been an absolute dud, scoring just five touchdowns in three games and ranking 123rd in points per drive. Receivers Nyck Harbor and Donovan Murph are averaging 21.6 yards per catch, but at only four catches per game. Quarterback LaNorris Sellers has become even more sack-prone — I probably should have put him on the disappointing QBs list above — and this week, he has had to work through concussion protocol while preparing to face a Mizzou defense that grades out as well as or better than Vandy’s.

Shane Beamer’s Gamecocks are projected favorites in only two more games this season. Either they get back on track immediately or 2025 veers into “Lost Season” territory.

Current line: Mizzou -10.5 (down from -12.5) | SP+ projection: Mizzou by 13.7 | FPI projection: Mizzou by 9.5

---

Another huge weekend for the Group of 5

The race for the Group of 5’s guaranteed playoff spot could see some twists this week, with two major hopefuls (Memphis and Tulane) getting shots at SEC upsets, and three others — UNLV, North Texas and Boise State — all facing tricky road trips.

Arkansas at Memphis (noon, ABC)

Memphis has looked awesome early and gets AAC opponents South Florida, Tulane and Navy at home. SP+ gives the Tigers a 36% chance of finishing 11-1 or better. Quarterback Brendon Lewis and running back Sutton Smith (in for the injured Greg Desrosiers Jr.) lead an efficient offense, and the defense has crushed bad offenses (including a Troy offense that lost its starting QB early on).

Arkansas’ offense, however, is as explosive as ever, thanks to quarterback Taylen Green, running back Mike Washington Jr. and receiver O’Mega Blake. The Razorbacks could be a permanent track-meet team thanks to a shaky defense, but Arkansas is capable of regularly winning those track meets, too.

Current line: Arkansas -7.5 | SP+ projection: Memphis by 0.5 | FPI projection: Arkansas by 2.4

Tulane at No. 13 Ole Miss (3:30 p.m., ESPN)

It’s hard to figure out how good Tulane actually is. The Green Wave made runs of 27-0 against South Alabama and 24-3 against Duke but let both opponents back into the game. Jake Retzlaff is 11th in Total QBR, but the run game moves backward a lot. The defense is a turnover machine, but it’s inefficient otherwise. Against whichever Ole Miss QB holds the reins — the injured Austin Simmons or backup Trinidad Chambliss, who destroyed Arkansas — the Green Wave will need far more stops than they’ve been making. Ole Miss’ run defense has been damningly bad, but the Rebels probably have too much firepower for Tulane to snag a third power-conference victory.

Current line: Ole Miss -13.5 | SP+ projection: Ole Miss by 17.5 | FPI projection: Ole Miss by 13.8

UNLV at Miami (Ohio) (noon, ESPNU)

After a rough start against Idaho State in Week 0, Dan Mullen’s UNLV has begun to look the part, and SP+ gives the Rebels a 14% chance of getting to 11-1 or better. Anthony Colandrea is fifth among G5 quarterbacks in Total QBR, both RB Jai’Den Thomas and WR Jaden Bradley are on pace for 1,000-yard seasons, and the defense has at least stabilized a bit.

Miami was outscored 62-17 by Wisconsin and Rutgers, but the RedHawks gave up almost no big plays, and with explosive quarterback Dequan Finn and receivers Keith Reynolds and Kam Perry on offense, they could make UNLV’s long road trip awkward.

Current line: UNLV -2.5 | SP+ projection: UNLV by 8.4 | FPI projection: UNLV by 3.3

North Texas at Army (noon, CBSSN)

In two home games, quarterback Drew Mestemaker and North Texas have overachieved against SP+ projections by a combined 77.6 points. In their lone road game, the Mean Green nearly lost to No. 122 Western Michigan. They’ll need to play far better in West Point against an Army team that sure looked like Army again in Week 2’s upset of Kansas State. Quarterback Cale Hellums rushed for 124 yards and led five drives of double-digit plays in Manhattan, Kansas, and if Hellums remains steady moving forward, Army will be a giant pain for any AAC team with CFP aspirations. Like North Texas.

Current line: North Texas -2.5 (flipped from Army -2.5) | SP+ projection: Army by 2.2 | FPI projection: UNT by 0.2

Boise State at Air Force (7 p.m., CBSSN)

Boise State’s season-opening faceplant at USF, combined with an upcoming trip to Notre Dame, removed all margin for error. The Broncos will likely have to sweep Mountain West play to have any hope of a CFP bid. Of course, they’re projected favorites in every MWC game, and they still have massive talent with running back Sire Gaines, defensive tackle David Latu, edge rusher Jayden Virgin-Morgan and safety Ty Benefield.

Air Force has been a pain for BSU plenty of times, and the Falcons still dominate the ball. But the defense got torched by Utah State last week. Not an encouraging sign.

Current line: BSU -10.5 | SP+ projection: BSU by 10.6 | FPI projection: BSU by 11.2

---

Week 4 chaos superfecta

We’re once again using this space to will chaos into existence, looking at four carefully curated games with pretty big point spreads and mashing them together into a much more upset-friendly number. Our winning streak ended last week when Miami, Ole Miss (barely), Alabama and Auburn all won. But we’re still 2-for-3 on the young year, and now it’s time to move to 3-for-4!

Sticking with this week’s “Anatomy of a mid-major upset” theme, SP+ says there’s only a 38% chance that Washington (88% win probability against Washington State), Cal (80% against San Diego State), Colorado (75% against Wyoming) and BYU (72% against East Carolina) all win. Let’s take down a power-conference team!

---

Week 4 playlist

Here are some more games you should follow if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.

Friday evening

Iowa at Rutgers (8 p.m., Fox). In theory, few matchups scream “ROCK FIGHT!!” like Iowa-Rutgers, but Rutgers is ninth in points per possession and 83rd in points allowed per possession. Iowa has little big-play potential, but the Hawkeyes have moved the ball well against mortal defenses. So, maybe this one isn’t destined to finish 7-6 or 5-3 or something.

Current line: Iowa -2.5 | SP+ projection: Rutgers by 0.2 | FPI projection: Rutgers by 1.6

Tulsa at Oklahoma State (7:30 p.m., ESPN). At the moment, this is the last game in which OSU is a projected favorite. Either the Cowboys use this as a spectacular get-right game after their 66-point humiliation at Oregon in Week 2 — or there’s (more) pain on the horizon in Stillwater.

Current line: OSU -12.5 | SP+ projection: OSU by 9.8 | FPI projection: OSU by 11.0

Early Saturday

SMU at TCU (noon, ESPN2). The Battle for the Iron Skillet! Few teams have underachieved against SP+ projections more than SMU through three games; maybe a rivalry game will wake up the Mustangs. If not, TCU’s big-play offense could have a lot of fun against an SMU defense that has given up loads of chunk plays.

Current line: TCU -6.5 | SP+ projection: TCU by 7.4 | FPI projection: TCU by 4.7

UAB at No. 15 Tennessee (12:45 p.m., SECN). Trent Dilfer’s third UAB team has been the same “solid offense, no defense” squad as his past two. If Tennessee is still reeling from last week’s heartbreaker against Georgia, the Blazers might land a punch or two, but not 60 minutes’ worth.

Current line: Vols -38.5 | SP+ projection: Vols by 37.0 | FPI projection: Vols by 36.4

Maryland at Wisconsin (noon, NBC). Per SP+, Wisconsin has only a 26% chance of reaching bowl eligibility this season, thanks to a schedule that already featured one top opponent and has five more to go. Lose to Maryland, and those odds fall to basically nil. At least it sounds like injured quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. — formerly a Terrapin — could be ready to go.

Current line: Wisconsin -9.5 (up from -7.5) | SP+ projection: Wisconsin by 0.4 | FPI projection: Wisconsin by 5.1

Saturday afternoon

No. 21 Michigan at Nebraska (3:30 p.m., CBS). Two years ago, Nebraska was on the wrong end of a 45-7 blowout loss to Michigan at home. Now, on paper, the Huskers have basically a 50-50 shot at taking down the Wolverines and scoring their biggest win since, what, 2015 (39-38 over No. 7 Michigan State)?

Current line: Michigan -1.5 | SP+ projection: Nebraska by 1.1 | FPI projection: Nebraska by 0.1

Purdue at No. 24 Notre Dame (3:30 p.m., NBC). Well, Notre Dame, it’s time to start scoring some style points. After losses to Miami and Texas A&M, the Irish will have to win out to have serious hope of a CFP shot, and they might have only one more genuine marquee win opportunity — USC in Week 8, and that’s only if the Trojans maintain their current form. So, it’s time to wreck some opponents. (Purdue might have something to say about that. Especially if the Irish defense doesn’t start defending.)

Current line: ND -26.5 | SP+ projection: ND by 20.4 | FPI projection: ND by 20.3

NC State at Duke (4 p.m., ESPN2). Duke has allowed 18 gains of 20-plus yards (tied for 122nd nationally). NC State has given up eight of 30-plus (tied for 114th). With State’s Hollywood Smothers and Wesley Grimes and Duke’s Nate Sheppard and Cooper Barkate, this could be a great game to be an explosive skill corps guy.

Current line: Duke -3.5 | SP+ projection: NC State by 1.2 | FPI projection: NC State by 0.1

North Carolina at UCF (3:30 p.m., Fox). I have no idea about either of these teams. Bill Belichick’s UNC has collected itself since its embarrassing Week 1 loss to TCU, and UCF has been good enough in Scott Frost’s first two games back in town. But anything from a 35-point UNC win to a 35-point UCF win wouldn’t surprise me.

Current line: UCF -7.5 | SP+ projection: UCF by 7.0 | FPI projection: UCF by 11.2

Temple at No. 18 Georgia Tech (4:30 p.m., The CW). Temple can make some big plays and could make things messy if Georgia Tech lets its guard down after last week’s big win over Clemson. The Yellow Jackets haven’t given us any reason to think that’s possible, though. (By the way, they’re projected favorites in their next eight games.)

Current line: Tech -23.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 21.6 | FPI projection: Tech by 18.9

Oregon State at No. 6 Oregon (3 p.m., BTN). Three weeks into the season, Oregon has risen from seventh to second in SP+ while OSU has fallen from 75th to 107th. We will need to conjure a lot of Weird Rivalry Magic to make this one interesting.

Current line: Oregon -34.5 | SP+ projection: Oregon by 40.1 | FPI projection: Oregon by 36.3

Saturday evening

Arizona State at Baylor (7:30 p.m., Fox). Arizona State finally checked into the 2025 season, putting away a spirited Texas State team with relative ease last week. Now, the close-game festival that is Big 12 Play begins against a Baylor team that might have transformed its season with Week 2’s wild comeback win over SMU.

Current line: Baylor -2.5 | SP+ projection: Baylor by 3.8 | FPI projection: Baylor by 0.8

West Virginia at Kansas (6 p.m., FS1). Kansas got a week to recover after a blown lead and a rivalry loss to Missouri; WVU is riding the crest of a big comeback and a rivalry win over Pitt. Who’s ready to move past the emotion and start the rest of their season? I’m pretty sure Kansas is still good, and WVU’s offense might have finally begun its season late against Pitt.

Current line: Kansas -13.5 | SP+ projection: Kansas by 7.1 | FPI projection: Kansas by 9.7

BYU at East Carolina (7:30 p.m., ESPN2). ECU has overachieved against SP+ projections by nearly three touchdowns per game. The Pirates could be good. And they get to give BYU’s freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier his first big road test. But the Pirates will have to score on BYU’s defense, which is first in points per drive and yards per play.

Current line: BYU -6.5 | SP+ projection: BYU by 9.5 | FPI projection: BYU by 6.0

Washington at Washington State (7:30 p.m., CBS). Washington State was impressive in its 36-13 runaway win over San Diego State in Week 2. Then, the Cougs went to North Texas and got absolutely blasted 59-10. Week 2 Wazzu and a torrid Martin Stadium would make this awfully tricky for Washington. Week 3 Wazzu … would not.

Current line: UW -20.5 | SP+ projection: UW by 18.6 | FPI projection: UW by 21.0

Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech (7:30 p.m., ESPN+). From 2021 through 2024, each of these proud old mid-major programs went 14-35 with an SP+ ranking of about 112.5. Now, both are 2-1 with at least a 60% chance of bowl eligibility. Can Southern Miss quarterback Braylon Braxton engineer enough points on a Tech defense allowing 12.3 points per game?

Current line: Tech -3.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 7.8 | FPI projection: Tech by 3.7

Late Saturday

Michigan State at No. 25 USC (11 p.m., Fox). A kickoff at 11 p.m. ET for a team based in Eastern Time? Cool. Makes perfect sense. Anyway, USC is averaging 55 points per game and 9.6 yards per play, and Michigan State has topped 40 points for two straight games. I don’t think the Spartans have the defense to make this a game for 60 minutes, but this could have Pac-12 After Dark vibes for a while.

Current line: USC -17.5 (up from -14.5) | SP+ projection: USC by 17.7 | FPI projection: USC by 24.2

California at San Diego State (10:30 p.m., CBSSN). Quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele and Cal are 3-0 and projected favorites in the next six games. But they’re 94th in third-down conversion rate, and SDSU’s defense ranks seventh. If the Aztecs can score a bit (not a given), they could make this one tricky.

Current line: Cal -12.5 | SP+ projection: Cal by 13.2 | FPI projection: Cal by 10.9

---

Smaller-school showcase

Let’s once again save a shout-out for the glorious lower levels of the sport. Here are three games you should track.

Division III: No. 16 Wisconsin-Whitewater at No. 6 Mary Hardin-Baylor (noon, local streaming). These programs lorded over Division III for nearly 15 years before getting surpassed by North Central. Both are still talented and dangerous, and they’re meeting for the seventh straight season (not including 2020). UWW has produced a 200-yard rusher in each of its first two games, but a third straight, against the Crusaders’ defense, would be a surprise.

SP+ projection: Whitewater by 1.2

Division III: No. 3 Johns Hopkins at No. 4 Susquehanna (1 p.m., FloFootball). The second D-III game on the list is even bigger: JHU backed up its top-five standing with a 27-13 win over No. 20 John Carroll last week and boasts the second-best defense in D-III, per SP+. Susquehanna, meanwhile, ranks fifth on offense. It might be North Central vs. The Field in D-III, but either of these teams could make a deep playoff run.

SP+ projection: Susquehanna by 0.3

FCS: No. 23 New Hampshire at Dartmouth (1 p.m., ESPN+). An incredibly interesting Ivy League season finally opens Saturday: The league champ will participate in the FCS playoffs for the first time, and at first glance, it looks like we have a three-team race among Harvard, Yale and a Dartmouth team that gets an immediate shot at a résumé win of sorts. UNH nearly beat Ball State last week — it was actually a bit of an upset that the Wildcats didn’t — and boasts one of the stingier defenses the Big Green attack will see all season.

SP+ projection: Dartmouth by 1.7

(One game you shouldn’t track? Rio Grande at Ferris State. That’s the second-worst team in NAIA, per SP+ — pronounced “Ry-Oh Grand” and located in the same Ohio town as the first Bob Evans restaurant — facing the class of Division II. SP+ projects Ferris State as a tidy 97.2-point favorite. The final score will be whatever the Bulldogs want it to be. If morbid curiosity gets the best of you, it kicks off at 3 p.m. on FloFootball.)

EUGENE, Oregon — College football is ultimately just one big trophy case. Every lobby of every team facility greets visitors with awards and placards of all sorts, be they crystal footballs, actual bowls from bowl game victories or old oaken buckets and brass spittoons.

But on Saturday (3 p.m. ET), when Oregon and Oregon State square off in Eugene, there will be no official postgame award exchange. No reluctant turning over of a rusty memento from years gone by with some elaborate sort-of-true backstory. Not even some modern corporate-sponsored Lucite or aluminum monstrosity.

That makes no sense. Not for a game that is being played for the 129th time, the most of any rivalry in the western half of the country and the fifth most all time in the entire FBS. Ducks vs. Beavers has history, stars, drama, all of it. It just doesn’t have a trophy.

Or does it?

The answer is yes. Well, partially yes. There is a trophy. It is not officially official, but it is officially real. And its relatively new realness reveals one of those elaborate trophy backstories that is totally true, though it sounds totally made up. Just like the animal it emulates. The one any visitor to the University of Oregon’s alumni relations office can see for themselves.

It’s the Platypus Trophy, and precisely like its namesake, it has spent the past 66 years stealthily burrowing its way in and out of obscurity along the 44 miles that separate Corvallis and Eugene. And, like any real platypus, it even found its way into the water.

“It’s a weird animal. It’s weird. It doesn’t actually come from a duck and a beaver, but it sure looks like it does,” explains Raphe Beck, executive director of the University of Oregon Alumni Association and current keeper of the trophy. “I’m no zoologist, but my understanding is it’s just this weird mishmash animal. Also, it’s only in Australia, so it’s sort of a funny thing for Oregonians to adopt.”

“Of course we adopted it,” adds John Valva, Beck’s Oregon State counterpart. “It’s weird, and Oregonians love to embrace their own weirdness, so it’s a great fit. I just don’t think those people know about this trophy like they should.”

In 2004, no one knew about it at all. That November, in the days leading up to the game formerly known as the Civil War, a question was asked that flushed our shy duckbilled friend out into the open, presented in The Oregonian by John Canzano, the sportswriter laureate of the Beaver State.

“Like, where’s the trophy? Somebody forgot something. This game needs a trophy. That’s a low-hanging fruit column,” the writer and radio host confesses. “So, immediately after I file the column, an email pops up from a man named Warren Spady. ‘Hey, there is a trophy. I sculpted it.’”

“Well, first of all, I don’t think of myself as an artist. I think of myself as a sculptor. It’s different. It’s a manly thing,” Spady says, laughing in his living room near Carlton, Oregon. Today, he is an 89-year-old retiree, a former longtime art teacher, sitting in a living room that is decorated with his sculptures. In the fall of 1959, he was an Oregon undergrad art student.

“The idea was not mine,” he remembers. “The idea was developed by two administrators, one from the University of Oregon and the other from Oregon State College, which didn’t become a university until a year later. I think they’d had a lot of beer.

“But anyway, they came up discussing ideas for something, you know, for a trophy, because, you know, all the other teams had one. So somehow, during one of these meetings, they came up with a platypus.”

They approached several graduate students to bring their idea to artistic life, but they all passed. So the task fell to undergrad Spady. He chose Oregon maple as his medium and went to work, seven days a week for a month, right up to kickoff of the big game. That led to an artistic decision.

“I wasn’t going to have enough time to do its feet, so I decided to put the platypus in mud. And if I had time, I’ll clean that mud off the feet,” he recalls thinking. “We were a touchdown favorite in that 1959 game, but I never had a chance to fix it because they lost. The trophy went to Oregon State. Then they won it again in 1960.” (Actually, that game ended in a 14-14 tie.) “Then I left school. So, he’s still in the mud.”

He is, after all, a platypus. OK, let’s call it an impressionistic interpretation of a platypus, with very little when it comes to features but very much when it comes to being a smooth, boomerang-like piece of wood with four legs, no feet and a head that looks an awful lot like its tail.

The pale maple mammal is mounted atop a wooden pedestal that is adorned with a brass plate decorated with the logos of Oregon and Oregon State, separated by the words: “RIVALRY GAME PLATYPUS TROPHY.” However, that is not the only plaque. There is a smaller one fastened to the short side of the base, reading “Exchanged between the OU and OSU Alumni Associations. Reinstated at the 111th Rivalry Game, December 7, 2007.”

But wait, there’s a third sign, too. Hidden on the opposite side of the first but just as large. It also has the school crests, but they are divided by the words: “PLATYPUS WATER POLO CHAMPION.”

Huh?

The Platypus Trophy has been stolen more times than Jan van Eyck’s Ghent Altarpiece. Oregon students, presumably angry over their upset loss, stole the trophy from Corvallis in 1959. Over the next several years, it was lifted and moved multiple times, ultimately vanishing for good after only three years of being awarded following the football game.

In 1986, Spady, at this time an art teacher in Eugene, was walking through the university aquatic center when he spotted his long-lost trophy behind glass. As it turned out, the Oregon water polo team had happened upon it, and during the mid-1960s made it its own personal web-footed pat on the back for winning four consecutive meets against State.

Spady was in a hurry that day and hustled past the trophy, vowing to return and “fix it up.” But there were also plans to fix up the aquatic center, and when it was torn down, the trophy was presumed lost.

Then came Canzano’s column … and Spady’s email … and Canzano’s follow-up story … and a renewed hunt for the platypus. It was literally a door-to-door search, led by Dan Williams, an Oregon administrator who in 1961 was the Oregon student body president tasked with handing the trophy over to the Oregon State student body president. It was finally found in a closet at Oregon’s McArthur Court, the basketball arena located next to, yes, the school’s Museum of Natural and Cultural History.

Rescued and cleaned up, the trophy was presented to the schools’ athletic administrators as a candidate for official game reward status, but they declined. “I think they thought it was too weird looking?” Spady surmises.

So ownership and postgame trading duties were handed over to the alumni associations, who happily volunteered for the gig.

“We’re lucky that our schools have two animals that could combine like that,” Beck says. “I don’t think there are a lot of college football rivalries that have mascots you can combine. You have the front end of a duck and the back end of the beaver.”

Responds Valva to being the, ahem, butt of a joke: “They would think that way. But in Beaver Land, that back half has a tail that you don’t want to mess with.”

That’s true, a fact verified by Kathryn Everson, a professor at Oregon State’s Department of Integrative Biology and a specialist in animal hybridization. “The Latin name for it is ornithorhynchus, which means bird-nosed, and then anatinus, which is duck-like. It has a bill that looks a lot like a duck, but actually if you touch it, it’s a little more fleshy. It kind of feels like suede to the touch.”

She explains the bill is packed with electro-sensory organs. When looking for food, a platypus will close its eyes and let the bill do the work.

“It also has webbed feet. It has a very beaver-like tail covered in fur,” she adds. “But unlike a duck and a beaver, the platypus is venomous. It actually has a spur on its back, feet that are hollow, that can inject venom. So, there you go.”

There you go, indeed. An animal not to be messed with, especially after decades of safely hiding and now, possibly, to be showcased in front of tens of thousands of college football fans. Maybe.

As far as anyone can recall, “Platy” as Valva and Beck lovingly call the trophy, has not been inside Oregon State’s Reser Stadium since 1960, if that happened at all. It has most definitely never darkened the doors of Oregon’s massive space age green and gold Nike-built football facility. That was obvious as soon as OU head coach Dan Lanning was shown a photo of the trophy this Tuesday. He said it was the first time in his four years as lead Duck he had laid eyes on it.

“It’s an interesting-looking trophy,” said the coach of the nation’s sixth-ranked team. “But I’ll tell you one thing, we want to win it.”

If his Ducks do win it (as of Thursday night they were a 34.5-point favorite), they in theory could become the first Oregon team to carry the Platypus Trophy off the field. But they won’t do that. They never do that. Because the trophy is still not officially recognized by either school. There doesn’t appear to be any reason to believe that will ever happen, which seems to be just fine with the alumni associations but is puzzling to Spady and his former classmates who remember when it was the recognized reward for winning the game, as short-lived as that might have been.

At the moment, Oregon-Oregon State, like a platypus, is difficult to define. Next year the game won’t be played for the first time since World War II. Even as current athletic administrators have expressed their dedication to its return, many in Eugene and Corvallis fear for the rivalry’s future.

It no longer has its old nickname. It no longer has its old conference, the Pac-12. Perhaps what it needs is an old trophy.

“It’s a Duck and a Beaver. It’s middle ground,” Canzano says, still hoping his Indiana Jones find achieves official status. “People here, they love and they live. It’s the perfect symbol.”

But for now, as this rivalry waddles into its uncertain future, college football fans must keep their eyes open — or close them and use their electrical beaks — to spot two alumni directors and their subtle postgame exchange. Sitting in a bar somewhere between their two campuses, just like the men who first conjured up the trophy idea so many years ago.

“Oh, there is no ceremony,” Valva says, chuckling. “There is no champagne that goes with Platy. Platy is a couple of us with a couple of beers and we hand it over and say, see you next year.”

Adds Beck: “We drive it on the I-5 and drop it off. Strapped into the backseat.”

Of what?

“A Subaru, like all Oregonians.”

Each week in the NFL is its own story — full of surprises, both positive and negative — and fantasy football managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true … don’t be surprised!

NOTE: All mention of fantasy points is for PPR formats, unless otherwise mentioned.

Cincinnati Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase was the No. 1 pick in most ESPN drafts this year, coming off a season in which he caught 127 passes for 1,708 receiving yards and 17 touchdowns. He was the top flex-eligible scorer in PPR formats, second overall only to Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson. However, awesome QB Joe Burrow threw every one of Cincinnati’s passes for the 2024 season. He may not throw another this season.

Don’t be surprised if … Chase remains the No. 1 player in fantasy football

Backup QB Jake Browning has been in this situation before. It was 2023, his first season with the Bengals, years after he led the Washington Huskies in the Pac-12 (look it up, it was a legit conference). Browning finished sixth in the 2016 Heisman Trophy voting. He tossed 43 touchdown passes. He played in the Peach Bowl. He took over for an injured Burrow during the Week 11 game at Baltimore and was a top-10 fantasy QB in five of the final six weeks, averaging 20 fantasy points per game. Browning should not be overwhelmed.

Oddly enough, Chase was not overly productive during the Browning games, though he lit up the Jacksonville Jaguars for 11 catches, 149 yards and a touchdown in Week 13. Some will use this seven-game period when Chase had only one big game as proof that he no longer belongs in the WR1 conversation at all. I don’t believe it. I left Chase at the very top in this week’s rest-of-season rankings. We can find potential blemishes with other top WRs and their QBs, too. Did Chase score 403 points because of Burrow, or because he is unstoppable? Let’s call it a combination of factors. Don’t underestimate Chase … or Browning.

Other QB thoughts that shouldn’t surprise:

• Los Angeles Chargers starter Justin Herbert has the look of a top-10 fantasy QB yet again, but I still think this Jim Harbaugh-led offense wants to run the football considerably more than it has so far. Herbert finished ninth in fantasy QB scoring as a rookie in 2020 and second to Josh Allen his second season, but it is tough for Herbert to score 300 points while playing little role as a runner. Now is the time to get rookie RB Omarion Hampton (and veteran Najee Harris), not shy away. I still don’t think Herbert passes for 4,000 yards or more than 25 touchdowns.

• There were times last season that I predicted Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts would finish with more rushing touchdowns than passing ones, which is quite preposterous for a QB in this era. He ended up with 18 passing scores and 14 rushing. Hurts will throw more in the coming weeks. He and his WRs are too talented, and the offense will not stay this unbalanced. Game flow and opponent dictated strategy. Still, do not expect Hurts to eclipse 3,000 passing yards or 20 TD passes, though. Ending up with 17 rushing TDs and 16 passing would be kind of wild, but it might happen.

• I don’t think Chicago Bears QB Caleb Williams played so badly in the Week 2 demolition loss to the Detroit Lions. I bet he plays even better this week against the Dallas Cowboys. Yes, a borderline QB1 option still lurks here. Don’t give up on Williams or his new No. 1 WR Rome Odunze. The narrative should alter soon.

---

Don’t be surprised if … Denver Broncos RB J.K. Dobbins finally rushes for 1,000 yards

Dobbins was a late signing this summer, more than a month after the NFL draft, and most fantasy managers probably gave this transaction little thought. RJ Harvey was a second-round pick, full of potential after delivering massive college numbers at UCF, including 25 touchdowns last season. Harvey may be great. He busted loose for a 50-yard run in Week 1. However, he has 28 rushing yards on his other 10 carries through two games. Dobbins is the better player right now.

The Broncos saw Dobbins, then with the Chargers, run 25 times for 96 yards and a touchdown in Week 6 last season. I think they want that version of Dobbins, volume and all, especially since QB Bo Nix looks like a turnover machine. Dobbins rushed for 905 yards and nine touchdowns last season over 13 games. Based on his unfortunate injury history, there is considerable risk he cannot play in all 17 games, but let’s hope he plays enough. It is early, but Dobbins is on pace for 1,190 rushing yards.

Other RB thoughts that shouldn’t surprise:

• I wouldn’t trade away Las Vegas Raiders rookie Ashton Jeanty yet. He hasn’t had any room to run so far, but the volume is only going to rise. This offense must get Jeanty out into space and utilize him that way. Five catches for three yards are an embarrassment. Get this man the football! A big Week 3 performance against the Washington Commanders is pending.

• New England Patriots rookie TreVeyon Henderson maintains a bright future, but veteran Rhamondre Stevenson is a superior pass blocker. As a result, the Patriots will play Stevenson more until he gets hurt or starts fumbling again, with each scenario in play based on recent seasons. When healthy, Stevenson is a bit underrated. Remember, he caught 69 passes in 2022. The Patriots really should present all the volume he can handle until he can’t handle it.

---

Don’t be surprised if … Zay Flowers remains a WR1 option

The Baltimore Ravens star enters Week 3 with 43.0 points, fifth among wide receivers, and what is stunning is how much more productive he has been than his pass-catching teammates. QB Lamar Jackson has thrown 48 passes. Flowers has been targeted on 20 of them, hauling in seven in each game. He also has three rushing attempts, after averaging 8.5 rushing attempts his first two seasons. It seems quite unsustainable that Flowers will continue to earn 42% of the team’s targets, but what about 30%? That would work!

Jackson threw 474 passes last season, 16th among passers. Remove Burrow, who threw 652 times, and the No. 2 QB for pass attempts was Aaron Rodgers, with 110 more than Jackson. That’s not that big of an edge over 17 games. Jackson can support Flowers as a top-10 fantasy WR, even if the target share is more like 30-35%. Last season, Flowers was targeted only 24% of the time. This year’s Ravens, however, are different. DeAndre Hopkins won’t approach 100 targets. Rashod Bateman never has. Flowers tied for 20th in WR targets last season. I think he can reach the top 10 there, too.

Meanwhile, TE Mark Andrews has two receptions on four targets so far. I featured Andrews in the Do Not Draft article because there was obvious touchdown regression coming, after he scored 11 times on only 55 catches. I didn’t think he also would regress to something like 40 catches and 500 receiving yards, too. This is happening, and it is why Andrews is among the most-dropped tight ends. The pending return of TE Isaiah Likely won’t help, either.

Other WR/TE thoughts that shouldn’t surprise:

• What I wrote earlier about Chase maintaining expected production works for Minnesota Vikings WR Justin Jefferson as well. You don’t have to rely on the QB in fantasy to expect big things from the top WR. Jefferson is special, and let’s remember that Jordan Addison returns from suspension in Week 4. That helps Jefferson, too. It doesn’t matter who plays QB, though in this case, Carson Wentz is at least experienced and boasts the skills to thrive. Ignore what happened in Week 17 last season when Wentz started for the Kansas City Chiefs and lost 38-0 at Denver. That was not on him.

• I like Houston’s schedule for the next two weeks and expect WR Nico Collins to produce bigger numbers, but we should be prepared for his move out of WR1 range. I was wrong about the Texans having a better offensive line. It looks offensive, all right, and no better than last season when QB C.J. Stroud ran for his life (proverbially, not literally). Stroud hasn’t had time to find Collins downfield. There is constant pressure. Collins averages a mere 5.5 yards per target, and it should have been much better against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

We’re only two weeks into the 2025 NFL season and still more than six weeks away from the Nov. 4 trade deadline (4 p.m. ET). But NFL seasons go by very quickly, and each week offers an array of new data points on which teams base their short- and long-term decisions.

The Buccaneers, for example, are 2-0 and four-time defending division champions that have their sights set on the Super Bowl. They also lost two starting offensive linemen to injury on Monday night and are still awaiting the return of another in left tackle Tristan Wirfs. This is a team capable of patching things together, but they might need some help from the outside if they’re going to get where they need to go in December and January.

Across Alligator Alley on the east coast of Florida, the Dolphins have had a rough start to the season. They are 0-3 and could conceivably be in rebuild mode if this season doesn’t turn around. Even with that deadline more than six weeks away, we can be sure teams are looking at Miami’s roster and wondering who might be available.

So with that all in mind, we decided to take a little bit of an early look at what could happen as the season gets closer to the deadline. Who could be on the move? Which teams could be adding new players? Which teams could be moving on from players? And what could happen between now and then to shake up the entire landscape?

Jump to:
Five potential trade targets
Five teams that could add
Five teams that cold subtract
Five wild-card factors

Five potential trade targets to watch

Here’s the one everyone has been talking about since the offseason. Hill was openly dissatisfied when the 2024 season ended, and while the team did not move on from him, he and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa talked in training camp about the fact that the relationship between Hill and the team was in need of repair. Everything I’ve been told backs up the idea that Hill has been doing the work the Dolphins have needed him to do to repair those relationships.

But he’s still a 31-year-old receiver with no guaranteed money on his deal beyond this season and a base salary of $10 million that wouldn’t be tough for another team to take on. Last season was the first time since 2019 that he didn’t crack 1,000 yards, and he was at 959. And he has 15 catches for 198 yards and a touchdown this season.

A complicating factor is that Hill could potentially face league discipline in the form of a suspension if the NFL investigates the recent accusations of domestic violence his ex-wife has made and finds him in violation of the personal conduct policy.

---

We haven’t heard much about Cousins in a while. But with Michael Penix Jr. entrenched as the Falcons’ starter and Cousins playing the good soldier on the bench (while making $27.5 million this season), teams that find themselves in need of a quarterback could absolutely be calling.

The Falcons don’t mind keeping Cousins as a backup in case something happens to Penix — after all, as many as five backup quarterbacks could start this week in place of injured starters, and it’s only Week 3. But if someone were to offer enough in return, would pick up some of Cousins’ salary and be OK with his fully guaranteed 2026 $10 million roster bonus, you never know. But the Falcons, who are under pressure to win soon, probably would have to find another backup QB they felt good about before moving on from Cousins.

---

He’s off to an excellent start with the new coaching staff, which believes he’s a great fit for the offense Liam Coen wants to run. Through two weeks, Etienne is second in the NFL in rushing (214 yards). He’s also playing on the fifth-year option season of his rookie contract and is not signed beyond 2025.

The Jaguars drafted Bhayshul Tuten in the fourth round of this year’s draft and then took passing-down back LeQuint Allen Jr. in the seventh. Those two probably form the future of the team’s backfield; Jacksonville already traded Tank Bigsby to the Eagles. If the Jaguars fall out of contention and want to get a longer look at their rookies, Etienne and his $6.143 million salary would probably be pretty easy to move.

---

Another 2021 first-round pick playing out his fifth-year option with no deal beyond 2025, Phillips could be a very interesting target for pass rush-needy teams if the Dolphins fall out of contention and decide they aren’t going to keep him long term.

He has had trouble staying healthy, but he’s healthy right now, and a prorated portion of his $13.251 million salary wouldn’t be too onerous in a league in which everyone’s always looking for edge rushers. Phillips had 15.5 sacks over this first two seasons in the NFL before injuries limited him to 12 games over the next two years.

---

An interesting one here because the Packers don’t seem to be a team that has to worry about falling out of contention. What they might have to worry about is having too many wide receivers.

Right now, with Christian Watson and Jayden Reed out because of injuries, it’s not an issue. But when and if those guys get back, it could be tough to find opportunities for everybody, considering they have Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks and first-round rookie Matthew Golden also in the mix. This room is crowded enough that former wide receiver Bo Melton switched to cornerback this offseason just to make the team.

Doubs is a name that came up in trade discussions during the offseason and certainly could again once the Packers are whole and teams come looking for help at the position. Green Bay could stand to recoup some draft capital after the Micah Parsons trade, and Doubs is making a very reasonable $3.406 million on the final year of his contract. He has clipped 600 receiving yards in each of his past two seasons, and he has 96 yards and a touchdown through two games in 2025.

Five teams that could look to add

Of all the 0-2 teams, this is the one we can be pretty sure won’t be throwing in the towel at any point. That’s because none of the other 0-2 teams have played in each of the past three Super Bowls. The Chiefs haven’t looked good, but they still have Andy Reid as their coach and Patrick Mahomes as their quarterback, and they tend to be active at the trade deadline. So we can feel pretty confident they’ll be looking to add, whether it’s at running back, wide receiver or somewhere on the defense.

The Chiefs are the team most often connected with Hill, in part because they have such a need at wide receiver and because he began his career in Kansas City. But if Xavier Worthy can come back healthy and Rashee Rice plays the way they expect him to after his six-game suspension, the Chiefs might be looking for help elsewhere on the roster come early November.

---

It’s hard to find a ton of holes on this roster, but a) you never know what needs will arise as the season goes along, and b) Eagles GM Howie Roseman is among the most active traders in the league. The Eagles made several deals during training camp and signed edge rusher Za’Darius Smith after the season began. They are the defending Super Bowl champs, but Roseman is always looking for ways to improve the roster.

At this point, if I had to predict, I’d say the Eagles will be on the lookout for help on the back end of their defense. Opponents have a 68.3 QBR against the Eagles this season, 26th in the NFL. Whatever the need turns out to be, Roseman won’t sit on his hands.

---

As mentioned earlier, the Bucs already have needs on the offensive line, down Wirfs, Luke Goedeke and Cody Mauch. They also lost defensive tackle Calijah Kancey (torn pec) for the season in Monday night’s very costly win.

Tampa Bay has won its division four years in a row and knows it might get a challenge from a hungry Falcons team, as it did last season. And the Buccaneers are also sick of being division champs but not advancing in the playoffs. With Baker Mayfield playing like a top quarterback and an offense that’s extremely deep at the skill positions, Bucs GM Jason Licht will surely be on the lookout for anything that can help in the trenches.

---

Last season fell apart for the Niners because of injuries, and they’re being walloped with them already this season. But they’re also 2-0 and one season removed from an overtime loss in the Super Bowl. It might not be as big a splash as they made when they acquired running back Christian McCaffrey from the Panthers in the middle of the 2022 season, but it’s easy to imagine San Francisco looking for help at wide receiver or in the secondary as the deadline gets closer.

---

Let’s wrap this section with our most surprising 2-0 team. No one knows for sure whether this hot start by the Daniel Jones-led offense is sustainable, but if so, the Colts have a real chance to win their division for the first time since 2014. Expect them to hit the accelerator if they’re still sitting in first place come late October. Lou Anarumo’s defense could use help at any of the three levels; the Colts are giving up 5.3 yards per play, which is league average.

Here’s something else: Some wonder if 2023 first-round pick Anthony Richardson Sr. could be of interest to a team looking for a developmental QB, and whether he could be a trade option at this year’s deadline if Jones keeps playing well enough to look like the Colts’ answer.

Five teams that could look to subtract

Starting the season 0-2 and seemingly already positioning themselves to be a big factor in next year’s draft (two first-round picks), the Browns could very easily be dealing away players by early November. Cornerback Greg Newsome II and tight end David Njoku are among the veterans in the final years of their contracts who could be of interest to teams looking for help at the deadline. And a quarterback room that has 40-year-old veteran Joe Flacco and rookies Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders is going to keep being talked about in these types of discussions.

---

We’ve kind of been over them already and even listed a couple of players who could potentially be trade options if the Dolphins don’t turn their season around. Again, the disclaimer applies that it’s only Week 3 and things can absolutely change. But because of the low outside expectations people have had for the Dolphins since the preseason, this is a roster that other teams have been eyeing for a while.

---

Another team for which outside expectations were fairly low coming into this season, the Saints are off to an 0-2 start in their first season under coach Kellen Moore and might end up looking to retool their roster for the future. Veterans such as running back Alvin Kamara (144 rushing yards this season) and receiver Chris Olave (108 receiving yards) — each of whom is signed through 2026 — could be of interest to teams looking for skill position help down the stretch.

I’d include veteran edge rusher Cameron Jordan here too, since he’s in the final year of his deal, but it’s just about impossible to imagine him finishing his career anywhere but New Orleans at this point.

---

Even if quarterback Russell Wilson is playing well by midseason, there’s a possibility the Giants will decide to switch to first-round pick Jaxson Dart — either because they think he’s ready to take over or because they’re losing too much and feel they need to change something to produce a spark. When and if that happens, Wilson could be appealing to a front office looking to acquire a veteran QB for the stretch run. Jameis Winston is also in the Giants’ quarterback room, though he might be in their 2026 plans as a veteran backup to Dart.

New York picked up the fifth-year option on edge rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux, so he’s signed through 2026. But given the Giants’ depth in the defensive front seven, they could certainly get calls on someone such as Thibodeaux if they’re falling out of contention. He has 1.5 sacks to begin the season.

---

Here we have another team under new management that could be using this season to assess who does or doesn’t fit into Pete Carroll’s program moving forward. If the Raiders fall out of contention in October, it’s not hard to imagine them starting to think about moving a player or two for draft capital.

Wide receiver Jakobi Meyers is off to a great start — he has 165 receiving yards, ninth in the league — but he did request a trade this offseason because he wasn’t able to get the contract extension he wanted from the Raiders. He’s a free agent at the end of the season, and as long as he remains without an extension, it’s fair to wonder whether he’s in the team’s plans for 2026 and beyond.

Five wild-card factors to consider

Can Jake Browning keep the Bengals in contention?

Cincinnati is off to a 2-0 start, but starting quarterback Joe Burrow is out at least three months because of a toe injury that requires surgery to repair. The Bengals say they believe Browning can keep them competitive, and they haven’t given up hope that Burrow might be able to return before the season ends. If we get to early November and both of those hopes are still alive, then I’d expect the Bengals to stay the course or even look to add help (though the latter would be unlike them).

But if they fall apart under Browning and/or Burrow’s recovery timetable is longer than their most optimistic current hopes, then teams probably will start calling about someone such as edge rusher Trey Hendrickson, who isn’t signed beyond this season.

---

Who will be the surprise contenders?

We’ve already mentioned the Colts as an example of a team that could be adding if their hot start turns into a contending season. Throw the 2-0 Cardinals in the same bucket, as a team whose coaching staff is in its third season and is under at least some degree of pressure to start producing results. If the Seahawks can make the NFC West a four-way race, maybe they become aggressive at the deadline to give themselves an edge down the stretch. And the Patriots are a team that seems to have some promise but also some roster holes to fill.

You never know at this point who the surprise contenders will be come midseason, but there always seems to be at least one. Somewhere out there, there’s a team we think will be dealing away guys but could turn out to be adding them. And of course, vice versa.

---

Where are the scheme-fit discrepancies?

Watch out for teams with new coordinators on either side of the ball that get into the season and realize that maybe some of the players who were already there don’t mesh with what the new coordinator wants to run.

The defense Matt Eberflus is running in Dallas, for example, is a lot different from what Mike Zimmer ran last season, and Dan Quinn the year before that. Let’s say they find out they have a young cornerback who fits better as a zone corner than one or more of their incumbents do. Does that make someone such as Trevon Diggs a trade candidate? That is pure speculation, but it’s an example of the point. New offensive schemes in places such as Chicago, Jacksonville and New England, and new defensive schemes in New Orleans, Las Vegas and Indianapolis could result in some personnel changes that aren’t necessarily tied to a team’s place in the standings.

---

Which teams have cap space — and which don’t?

Any salary a team acquires during the season has to fit under the salary cap. Even if you are going to restructure your new player’s contract to fit under the cap, you still have to have enough space at the time of the acquisition.

So while teams such as the Bills, Chiefs, Colts and Ravens might end up wanting to make deals for impact players, they all rank among the teams with the least amount of cap space at this time. The Patriots, Lions, Cowboys, Commanders, 49ers, Seahawks and Buccaneers are among the teams with the most space and might be in better positions to add.

Also remember that the amount teams have to pay the player drops every week. If someone acquired Hill before the season, they would have had to pay his full $10 million salary. But if they acquire him next week, after three games have been played, they have to pay him only $8.3 million for the rest of the season (because the Dolphins will have already paid him three weeks’ worth of the $10 million). If they wait until right before the deadline, they have to pay Hill only $5 million for the rest of the season.

---

Who else will get hurt, and how does that affect movement?

The unfortunate fact of the league is that there are more injuries to come — and to significant players. Burrow and the Tampa Bay offensive linemen are among this week’s prominent examples, but between now and the trade deadline, there are sure to be injuries significant enough to alter teams’ evaluations of what they need and their overall approach to the deadline.